According to foreign information, The Information reports that at an internal conference of Apple Inc. in October this year, Mike Rockwell, Apple ’s vice president responsible for AR / VR projects, shared Apple ’s AR product roadmap with at least 1,000 employees at Apple headquarters. Apple is expected to launch the first head-mounted device in 2022, and AR smart glasses that will be smaller and can be worn for a long time in 2023.
The Information expects to replace the smartphone iPhone within 10 years of its launch. According to people familiar with the matter, it is designed to be worn all day, and the prototype looks like expensive sunglasses that can hold batteries and chips.
Many people in the industry and related companies have claimed that AR / VR equipment will become the next generation of mobile phones, but for now, it may only be a BB machine. AR will definitely replace mobile phones in the next 10 years. Of course, Luo Yonghao also said in the dialogue program with Luo Zhenyu that he is studying to eliminate the "human next computing platform" for smartphones. If this computing platform is not unexpected, it must be glasses such as VR and AR. Prior to the founding of Magic Leap, Man Rony Abovitz also said that AR technology will replace smartphones.
The future of AR glasses is also optimistic about major institutions and giant companies and investors. Currently, AR investment and financing have surpassed VR, and it is also considered to be easier to obtain income than VR.
According to the IDC forecast, the sales volume of AR glasses will reach 31.9 million units in 2023, with a compound growth rate of 169% in 2019-2023. According to related reports, Facebook and Ray-Ban's parent company are also cooperating to develop AR glasses that can be independent of mobile phones, which will be launched in 2023-2025. Snap is also developing a fourth-generation AR glasses code-named Hermosa.
In the next 10 years, can AR really replace the iPhone, or can it replace smartphones? I can't see it.
Apple's AR strategy is to drive AR through mobile phones
From Apple's own perspective, as Apple's traditional three major hardware smartphones, tablets, and personal computers enter the stock market from the incremental market, it is absolutely necessary to develop a new product line outside the iPhone to bring Apple into the second curve.
As early as 2016, Cook was quite optimistic about AR. In the same year, the popularity of Pokémon Go allowed many players to contact AR technology for the first time through mobile phones. It also made Apple eager to use AR as the next new computing platform and promote the new iPhone. Innovation to boost sales.
Cook has also revealed many times that Apple will add AR functionality to the iPhone software and application store, add 3D sensors to the new iPhone, and open the AR platform to developers, and then release an AR product that can run directly as an iPhone Tailored for all AR applications.
Apple has many actions in the AR field. For example, in 2017, Apple acquired a Canadian company called Vrvana, which has certain AR / VR technology. At the same time, Apple also acquired a company called SensoMotoric Instruments. The company is developing eye-tracking technology for smart glasses.
In 2018, Apple acquired Akonia Holographics, which produces holographic lenses for AR glasses.
In September 2019, Taiwan ’s Economic Daily reported that Apple still applied for more than 20 new AR / MR application patents in the United States, covering light sources, 3D eye-tracking and other fields. The US Patent and Trademark Office disclosed that Apple has applied for a system for determining the endpoint of a subject's gaze, including an eye-tracking unit, a head tracking unit, and the like.
In general, Apple's accumulation of AR patented technology may have reached a certain level. It is only a matter of time before the introduction of AR headset devices, but from the direction of Apple's AR technology, Apple's development of AR is not to replace the iPhone and Is to connect the iPhone and bless the value of the iPhone.
For example, according to previous industry disclosures, the Apple ARKit team made a headset AR device that connects to iPhones. The device was originally planned to be released at a new product conference in September this year but was temporarily canceled due to internal disputes.
Apple analyst Guo Mingyu also speculated earlier that the role of Apple's AR glasses will be to play the role of an iPhone display, transmitting computing, networking, and positioning to the iPhone. "CNBC" believes that Apple's iOS platform also has thousands of applications that support augmented reality, which will help Apple create more content for smart glasses.
From Apple's patented technology to Cook's vision of AR and current relevant news, Apple's AR glasses are based on the extension of the iPhone's functions, connect the iPhone to create new gameplay, and add fresh content to the iPhone's iOS software and hardware ecosystem. Blood (AR application), iPhone is the book, AR is the supplement, AR is new iPhone-connected hardware, and it is more important for Apple to enrich the software service ecosystem and category of iOS.
For example, Apple launched its AR development platform ARKit in 2017, which continues to iterate. At the end of 2018, there were 600 million ARKit-compatible iOS devices on the market. The number of apps supporting ARKit on the App Store increased from more than 2,000 to more than 3,000.
Compared with VR, AR has the advantage that it does not require additional helmets and other hardware to play directly through the iPhone, and it is not difficult to promote it on a large scale. However, if AR lacks the connection with the iPhone and cannot be grafted on the iOS ecosystem, AR will become a rootless tree.
The same is true for games such as Pokémon Go. The imagination of AR technology lies in the combination of software and hardware functions based on mobile platform operations such as Siri, camera, full screen, and maps. If AR drives more AR game explosions, only Guide new revenue-generating space for iPhone software.
From the technology itself, AR is a supportive and extensible technology that provides services for other products, such as providing AR interfaces for various products. AR glasses also need to be connected to smartphones to obtain network connections, storage, and AR application sites. Required processing power, it has not been able to develop into a completely independent product based on AR technology.
Therefore, from the perspective of Apple's approach, it is the strategic gameplay of mobile phone-driven AR-AR that contributes to the software and hardware ecosystem of the iPhone. AR-iPhone collaboration products will play a role in enhancing the iPhone product innovation experience. The differences between the content gameplay and the ecological level and the gameplay of other mobile phone manufacturers are prominent, and they have evolved towards different paths, highlighting the difference in the iPhone experience and the imagination of revenue.
Why can't AR glasses replace mobile phones in 10 years?
In fact, as early as around 2014, many people shouted that smartwatches will replace mobile phones and become the next generation computing platform. Later, the thing that was said to replace mobile phones was VR. Especially around 2015 ~ 2016, a large number of entrepreneurs flocked to VR. HTC said at that time that it would fully invest in AR. The mobile phone business was not the focus of HTC at that time, but HTC today not only ignores the mobile phone business in the industry, VR business also sees no profit prospects.
To completely replace a product with another product, we must look at it from three directions.
First, it completely solves the shortcomings of the previous generation products and has an ultra-convenient mobile experience that cannot be achieved by the previous generation products. The experience far exceeds the original products. For example, the replacement of smartphones by feature phones is because it has created a new entertainment touch screen experience, improved the original mobile phone's keypad, and improved the Internet and games' shortcomings.
Secondly, it subverts the value system of the original product, subverts the old product model, and forms a new ecosystem. Or, because the previous generation product lacked the construction of the ecosystem, people can easily withdraw from the original software tool product. For example, WeChat's replacement for text messages belongs to this category.
Third, it creates a more convenient connectivity and a better experience. The replacement of the mobile phone for the BB machine belongs to this category.
From the perspective of the comparative experience between AR and mobile phones, AR has not achieved these three advantages and attributes of substitution. Compared with AR glasses, the advantages, prospects, and experience of mobile phones have no obvious shortcomings. On the contrary, glasses products are quite limited. With the advent of the Internet of Things era in the 5G era, there is still room for mobile phones to extend and tap the potential of connecting everything.
According to some people's imagination: "In the future, users will not have to carry their mobile phones with them. They only need to use glasses to handle everything."
This view is roughly expressed: "Users are too lazy to go out and do n’t want to bring a mobile phone. Mobile phones have become a burden for modern people. Glasses greatly improve the shortboard of mobile phone operations. It is better to take a head out to handle tasks on the helmet every day than to take A cell phone is more convenient. "This view is clearly contrary to common sense.
Even from the point of view of portability and mobility, the mobile phone is just a thing in the palm of the hand. It has now achieved the ultimate in lightness, portability and easy operation. From the perspective of user habits, product experience, and ease of operation, flicking glasses with a headset is no more convenient than controlling the phone with both hands. Moreover, in terms of playing documents, typing, games, and other playing experience, the mobile phone touch screen experience is not a substitute for glasses.
As some netizens pointed out: "If AR is going to replace mobile phones, is it necessary to wear a helmet to hit the king with brain waves?"
The shape characteristics and fragility of the glasses determine that they are not suitable for carrying around. In addition, a big pain point of AR devices is that they must integrate high-performance computing devices, making the helmet bulky, and whether it is suitable for all-weather wear is also a problem.
From the perspective of gameplay, the advantages of augmented reality can allow people to interact with the real world in new ways, but it needs more to achieve better operation and presentation with other hardware terminals and platforms, including driving navigation, social and AR social games, etc. Both need to be combined with a smartphone.
Therefore, the limitation of AR technology is that it relies more on connecting with other products, interfaces, and bindings to upgrade the experience. This is why, although Microsoft HoloLens is the best product in the AR field at present, it is not consumer-oriented. Market, because if AR is to face the consumer market, it also needs to form a synergy with terminals such as smartphones to create a new experience.
From the perspective of a smartphone, the value of its irreplaceability lies not only in its product functions, communications, and gaming experience but in that it has penetrated into all walks of life and promoted the convenience of national life. The industry is expanding indefinitely, and it has become the infrastructure for many industries, product transactions, communication, connection, and interaction-as a mobile device, it has penetrated into taxi, takeaway, social, e-commerce, and payment to graphic / video content Authoring, media, and tools, games, entertainment, finance, and many other industries, users are almost all bound by mobile phones, and the types of jobs, industries, and developers that mobile phone applications carry have involved all walks of life.
It is not just an electronic product, but an infrastructure that involves many aspects of the national economy. It is a huge ecological carrier and connector. It is not a product that can be subverted by a so-called eyewear product. With the advent of the 5G era, the value of mobile phones will continue to extend to the field of the Internet of Things.
More vividly, for example, high-speed rail and highway transportation is the infrastructures of the national economy, and every country is vigorously promoting infrastructure construction. Will these infrastructures be replaced in the future with the development of new vehicles? This possibility is not ruled out, but technological development follows certain rules. The development of transportation and technology will not suddenly and completely subvert the existing road infrastructure system within 10 to 20 years.
It is not a trend that will happen in 10 years to remove the currently built, convenient and comfortable infrastructure and redo a new logical infrastructure. Back to the topic, AR is a technology that interacts with the real world. It can create a lot of new gameplay in the field of games, education, etc. AR can bring cooler sensory experiences and bring fun to smartphone application gameplay. The experience of interacting with the real world, but it is still far from the value attribute of infrastructure.
Even in terms of portability, mobility, and operability, mobile phones are more portable than glasses and have more mobile operations. From the perspective of user habits and the scale of the ecosystem that people invest in mobile phones, time, money, and content, the importance of mobile phones will only increase, not lower.
In the 5G era, mobile phones will continue to connect and penetrate various industries and will continue to evolve. Product forms will continue to innovate. The rigidity of mobile phones, the value of connection and the importance of infrastructure are unmatched by headsets or AR glasses. of.
The next 10 years, the irreplaceable value of mobile phones will become more and more obvious
Bezos said something like this: Rather than change, I care more about what will not change in the next ten years, and then focus all my energy and effort on such things.
Ten years are far away and ten years are short. Smartphones have been around for 10 years since they were released, but they still cannot replace PCs or even TVs. Although many things have changed in 10 years, many things have not changed.
As mentioned before, after the iteration of the last 10-year cycle, smartphone products have connected many aspects of real-life and economy. As an important computing platform, mobile phones continue to promote the connection and data precipitation of various industries. With mobile phones as the core, The ecosystems of various industries are still in the continuous development period, and the ecosystems will not be replaced by another product in a short time.
After all, smartphones are currently in a period of rising and value release, rather than aging. In the next 10 years, its irreplaceable value will become increasingly apparent.
After all, even though AR glasses may develop into a national-level computing platform in the future, it is a trend product with a cooler experience, but its product application scenarios and gameplay determine that AR products will not directly conflict with and compete with mobile phones. It will not be a relationship of mutual replacement. In other words, the two products are not on the same track.
For Apple, the importance of the iPhone is not only that it is the core source of revenue, but also the pillar that supports the brand premium. It is the main ship. It is like Huawei ’s communications business, Tencent ’s social business, and e-commerce. The business is to Ali. This kind of business is related to the foundation. If the basic business falls, it is not a new product to replace, because the underlying business of these giants is a company with a high brand premium and is already connected to many industries. Huge ecosystem, it is difficult to subvert.
This is why Apple ’s original intention and logic in developing AR glasses is obviously to strengthen the connection between AR glasses and iPhone. The applications behind AR hardware are also part of Apple ’s iOS content service strategy. At present, Apple is vigorously developing news subscriptions, Arcade game subscription services, The content service system, such as video services, aims to strengthen the iOS content ecosystem with the iPhone as its core hardware and build a moat for the next 10 years of the iPhone.
The purpose of Apple's AR glasses is to improve it.
